Buy 10 packs, get 2 free. Will your pharmacy sell them before expiry?

The wholesaler offers to add two free packs if you order ten today. You were about to order eight. For the price of two more, you could take home four more. It sounds worth doing until you turn over a pack and check the expiry date.

The offered batch has two full selling months left. You already have four packs of the same product on the shelf. Those four expire first, and at your usual sales rate of six packs a month, you expect to sell them all in the first month.

Over two months, you expect to sell 12 packs in total. Four of those sales will come from your shelf. That leaves buyers for eight packs from today’s delivery.

What would the two free packs actually cost you?

At the regular price of 120 per pack, your original order of eight costs 960. Together with the four you already have, that covers all 12 expected sales. You expect to have none left at expiry.

Take the offer and the invoice comes to 1,200. Spread that cost across the 12 packs delivered and each costs 100. You still expect to sell only eight from the delivery, leaving four packs worth 400 at acquisition cost when the batch reaches its cutoff.

There are two different figures here. The 400 is the value of the stock you may have to write off. The 240 is the extra cash you spend today compared with ordering eight. Both orders cover the same expected sales, so adding the two figures would count part of the cost twice.

How many would you need to sell for the offer to pay?

Ten packs bought individually cost 1,200, exactly the promotional invoice. The saving starts with the eleventh new pack. Buying eleven individually would cost 1,320, so the offer would save 120, assuming the same delivery charges and no credit for expired stock.

With four older packs to sell first, that means you need a credible reason to expect at least 15 total sales before the cutoff. Your recent pace points to 12. On those numbers, order the eight packs. A confirmed order for three additional packs due before the cutoff would change the decision.

Before accepting your next bonus offer, ask for the batch expiry date and check how many packs you already have that will sell first. Then finish this sentence with your own numbers:

“After selling what’s on my shelf, I expect to sell ___ packs from this delivery. Buying that many at the regular price would cost ___.”

Compare that amount with the promotional invoice before you say yes.