Your pharmacy shows one tablet left. Should you order another box?

Your stock report says one tablet remains. You normally sell three a day, and the supplier takes two days to deliver. Ordering another box seems urgent.

But the shelf holds 100 tablets. The previous delivery was entered as one tablet instead of one box of 100.

The warning has reached the buyer before the receiving error has been discovered. What happens next depends on whether you trust the displayed balance or check the stock behind it.

Consider two purchasing responses using exactly the same demand forecast.

The situation before either decision

This fictional pharmacy has one saleable batch of a product, with no outstanding reservations or incoming orders. Its stock position is as follows:

1. Physical stock: 100 tablets.
2. POS balance: one tablet.
3. Expected demand: three tablets per day.
4. Remaining selling window: 30 days before the applicable cutoff.
5. Purchase cost: 500 per box of 100, or five per tablet.
6. Supplier lead time: two days.

The supplier’s available replacement box has the same cutoff as the stock already on the shelf. There is no agreed return arrangement or confirmed transfer destination.

Over the next 30 days, expected demand is 90 tablets. These assumptions let us compare the consequences of the purchasing decision without changing demand between the two examples.

Response one .. order another box immediately

The buyer sees one tablet on the report and orders 100 more.

During the two days before delivery, the pharmacy sells six tablets from the stock already present. When the new box arrives, the physical balance becomes:

100 originally on hand, 6 sold + 100 received = 194 tablets.

There are then 28 days left in the selling window. At three tablets a day, the pharmacy expects to sell another 84 tablets.

That leaves 110 tablets unsold at the cutoff, with an acquisition cost of 550.

The order has spent another 500. Yet under the stated demand forecast, it has prevented no shortage during those 30 days. The original stock was sufficient to supply all 90 expected sales.

Both boxes share the same cutoff, so whichever eligible batch is used first, the total expected remainder is still 110 tablets.

Response two, count the stock and correct the receipt before buying

The buyer checks the shelf, confirms the pack size and traces the original invoice. The receiving record is corrected through the approved process so that the POS reflects the verified quantity.

With 100 tablets available and 90 expected sales, the buyer defers the additional box.

At the cutoff, the expected remainder is 10 tablets, costing 50.

The pharmacy can meet the same 90 sales while keeping the extra 500 available for other purchases. It also has a manageable expiry question to investigate now: can those remaining ten tablets be returned or transferred appropriately before the cutoff?

Under these assumptions, the immediate order increases projected unsold stock from 10 to 110 tablets. Checking the receipt first avoids adding 100 tablets and 500 in potential expiry exposure.

These are forecast amounts. Actual expiry waste depends on what subsequently sells, is returned or is transferred before the cutoff.

Would the answer change if demand increased?

Yes. The decision depends on the verified stock, expected demand and delivery timing.

Suppose demand rises to five tablets a day. The original 100 tablets would now cover only 20 days, while expected demand over 30 days becomes 150 tablets.

Some additional supply would be needed to meet that demand. An immediate extra box would provide enough stock, but would leave 50 tablets at the shared cutoff if all 150 expected sales occurred.

The buyer should then check whether the supplier can provide a smaller quantity, a later-expiring batch or another suitable delivery arrangement. If the only option is a full box with the same cutoff, the availability benefit and expected remainder are both part of the decision.

The correct receipt gives you the starting balance needed to make that choice.

Deferring an order needs a review date

For the original forecast of three tablets a day, the buyer could review the product after seven days. If demand follows the forecast, 79 tablets should remain.

Compare the actual balance and sales with that expectation. Faster sales, a longer supplier lead time or new reservations may change when replenishment is needed. Also plan supply beyond the existing batch’s cutoff, using the lead time and stock buffer appropriate to the pharmacy.

A decision to defer today’s purchase should leave the next buyer with a clear date to review it.

A five-minute check before approving the next box

Take one product flagged for reorder and answer these questions:

1. How many saleable tablets are physically available? Confirm the pack conversion and account for reservations.
2. How many tablets do we expect to supply before the batch cutoff? Use a demand assumption you can explain.
3. What will the proposed delivery add? Check its quantity, arrival date and its own cutoff.
4. Will it prevent an expected shortage within that period? Calculate the likely remainder as well.

For the worked example, your purchasing note could read:

“Counted 100 tablets. Forecast demand is 90 before cutoff. Original receipt corrected. Additional box deferred because the available delivery shares the same cutoff. Review stock and sales in seven days and plan replenishment for the next selling period.”

That note tells the next person why you held the order and what evidence could change the decision.